In 2012, Mitt Romney's wins in Florida (technically on January 31) and MI sent him on his way to the Republican nomination. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders will be facing off at a CNN town hall Tuesday evening as they prepare for South Carolina's Democratic primary on Saturday.
Let's start with the Democrats.
On the eve of the Nevada caucuses, where Donald Trump is poised to win his third election, the Republican presidential frontrunner openly threatened to punch a protestor at one of his rowdy rallies. This was identical to her percent share of the vote there against Obama in 2008.
Sanders lost his New Hampshire momentum in Nevada Saturday, and Trump thinks that the only thing that can stop Clinton is an indictment. Bernard Sanders of Vermont is "socialist" and "old", according to a Gallup poll released Tuesday. As a caucus state instead of primary state, on-the-ground organization matters more, and she had the money and the apparatus to build a top-flight ground game.
Recent polling data does show Cruz with a 1-3 percentage point lead over Hillary Clinton in head to head matchups whereas Trump is now losing to Clinton in mano-a-mano matchups in three of the four most recent polls by an average of about 3 percent.
The internals are not quite a mirror of 2008.
He said, "I wish Nevada would make it illegal". All this is assuming the Federal Bureau of Investigation doesn't weigh in.
Mr. Trump won easy victories in the previous two states to vote, SC and New Hampshire. That's enough to give him victories in many-candidate contests. Nevada voters should keep an eye out for "dishonest stuff", Trump also warned. So, his chances for the nomination are significantly below 100 percent.
In South Carolina on Saturday, Rubio celebrated his second place finish, calling it a dramatic comeback for his campaign. He finished third in SC, despite an electorate full of the kind of evangelical voters who thus far have carried his campaign. However, Trump may get some of that group as well since he's sitting at 11% support. Ted Cruz (Texas) and Marco Rubio (Florida) are long shots at best.
While a quarter of all the Republican delegates are up for grabs on the March 1, they are distributed proportionally.
Delegate math hurts Cruz as well. Those superdelegates can switch candidates and Sanders team says that if the count is close, they plan to lobby delegates from the states he wins to change their positions. "Turn off the lights, turn off the lights", Trump yelled when the lights flicked back on after a brief outage.
Endorsements by Rep. Trey Gowdy, Sen.
In the 2008, Democratic caucuses in Nevada - the first year the contest existed in earnest - turnout was roughly 120,000 voters.
Rubio believes a narrower GOP field will hurt Trump and help him. For Trump, it is looking more and more like Iowa was the exception to his high poll numbers, and not the rule. The results from this weekend tell us a lot about the future shape of the nomination races.